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Understanding economic data: Confidence indicators

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Exam-style questions: Questions on demerit goods

Correlation versus causation

How economists separate fact from coincidence

When two variables move together, it may be tempting to conclude that one causes the other, but this leap often leads to flawed policy and business decisions. In this article, Juliana Carneiro explores this distinction using policy-relevant examples

Bees working on honeycomb.
Is urban beekeeping a useful indicator of a neighbourhood’s prosperity?
© takoburito/stock.adobe.com

government policy, policy objectives, economic methodology, macroeconomic policy and growth

At its core, the discipline of economics seeks to uncover genuine causal mechanisms that explain how our economic world functions. How do changes in interest rates affect inflation? Through what channels does education spending transform economic development? What drives wage disparities across regions? To answer these questions, economists must distinguish between correlation and causation – arguably the most important analytical distinction in our discipline.

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Previous

Understanding economic data: Confidence indicators

Next

Exam-style questions: Questions on demerit goods

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